Set archive
MSH Pack One archive
Original analysis of 300 MSH replay seats: consensus confidence, close calls, recurring opening-pick leaders, and model context.
What is in the MSH sample?
This archive uses 300 historical replay seats. The consensus model for this set was trained from 5,000 drafts and 209,999 picks drawn from an experienced cohort of 40,480 drafts. The recorded win-rate cutoff for the cohort is 60%.
How decisive were the opening packs?
Across these replay seats, the model's average gap between its first and second cards was 27.9%. 24% of packs had a gap of ten support points or less, while 42% had a gap of thirty points or more. That split is useful when reviewing a miss: a narrow disagreement is not the same signal as passing a card the model strongly separated from the field.
Cards that most often led the opening pack
These are not a set ranking or a pick-order list. They are the cards that appeared as the model's most-supported card most often in this particular 300-seat replay sample. Frequency depends on which cards were opened.
Hero in TrainingTCGplayer
Web UpTCGplayer
The VisionTCGplayer
Cosmic CubeTCGplayer
The Mighty Thor, Jane FosterTCGplayerAffiliate disclosure: TCGplayer links are marked sponsored. After Pack One's Impact partnership is activated, eligible purchases may generate a commission at no added cost to the buyer.
Three of the closest opening decisions in the archive
These packs produced the smallest support gaps between the top two cards in the sample. They are especially useful challenge packs because the model itself expresses little separation.
| Model #1 | Model #2 | #1 support | #2 support | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmic Cube | The Mighty Thor, Jane Foster | 37.7% | 37.6% | 0.1% |
| Jennifer Walters | The Wondrous Wasp | 29.8% | 29.7% | 0.1% |
| Ironheart, Clever Champion | Cruel Alliance | 29.9% | 29.7% | 0.2% |
How to use this page
Use the statistics to calibrate your expectations before treating a score as a verdict. A set with many close opening decisions should naturally produce more reasonable disagreement. The archive is descriptive of the stored replay sample and model version; it is not a complete ranking of every card or every possible pack.